The Lows

Written By Zander Trudel

While everyone’s chasing the next big star, knowing which players to avoid is just as crucial. We bring to light the potential players who should think twice about drafting or starting in your line ups.

1. D.J. Moore (WR, Chicago Bears)

While D.J. Moore delivered some strong performances in 2024, particularly early on, his efficiency and target dominance saw a noticeable dip towards the end of the season. With significant new talent infused into the Bears' receiving corps, his overall volume and elite efficiency are likely unsustainable in 2025.

  • Target Share: His target share, which hovered around 30% for much of the season, fell to 22% in the final five weeks of 2024, as the offense tried to spread the ball more.

  • Yards Per Route Run (YPRR): His YPRR decreased to 1.85, a drop from his earlier elite numbers, indicating less consistent separation.

  • PFF Receiving Grade : His PFF receiving grade dipped to 78.0, reflecting a slight downturn in overall effectiveness as the season concluded.

2. Christian Kirk (WR, Houston Texans)

Christian Kirk's role in the Jaguars' passing game became increasingly marginalized as the 2024 season concluded. As the Jaguars' offense struggled for consistency, Kirk's target share became increasingly volatile, raising concerns about his standing in the pecking order for 2025 on a new team that already has studs at the widout position.

  • Snap Share: While active, his snap share in key passing situations or 2-WR sets dropped to below 60%. Clearly there is a reduced role in critical moments.

  • Targets & Target Share: Kirk's target share plummeted to a concerning 14% in the last four weeks of 2024, as other receivers gained priority.

  • Yards Per Route Run (YPRR): His YPRR fell to 1.25, reflecting a significant drop in efficiency and an inability to consistently get open.

  • PFF Receiving Grade: His PFF receiving grade fell below 70.0 in the latter half of the season, underscoring his struggles to create consistent separation.

3. Alvin Kamara (RB, New Orleans Saints)

Alvin Kamara's 2024 season showed signs of an aging running back struggling with efficiency and explosion, particularly towards the latter portion of the year. As he approaches a significant age milestone for the position, his 2025 outlook is increasingly cloudy, suggesting a continued decline from his previous elite form.

  • Yards Per Carry: His YPC dipped to a concerning 3.5 in the final four weeks of 2024, indicating a clear struggle to break off big runs or gain consistent yardage.

  • PFF Rushing Grade His PFF rushing grade fell to 68.0, showcasing a decline in his signature elusiveness and tackle-breaking ability.

  • Broken Tackles Per Attempt: His rate of broken tackles per attempt also saw a notable decrease, reflecting less burst through contact.

4. Austin Ekeler (RB, Washington Commanders)

Austin Ekeler's 2024 season was a significant disappointment, marred by inefficiency and a notable decline in his receiving prowess, which had been his fantasy hallmark. His move to the Washington Commanders, at his age, suggests a further decline in his versatile role in 2025.

  • Snap Share: His snap share, once among the highest for RBs, consistently stayed below 65% in the final five weeks of 2024.

  • Yards Per Touch: His YPT plummeted to a concerning 3.5, indicating a severe drop in his ability to make plays with the ball in his hands.

  • PFF Rushing Grade: His PFF rushing grade was a career-low (e.g., 60.0), reflecting a lack of burst and power.

  • Receiving Targets: Critically, his receiving targets saw a sharp decline, often failing to reach 5 targets per game, removing a huge part of his fantasy value.



Zander Trudel